With a reduction in licensees, is now a good time to get into real estate? My response:

The question of how many people have left the real estate industry came via email from one of our prospective students yesterday. I was going to reply with hard data until I realized that the data was going to be flawed.  The number of people “not” working is never going to be accurately reflected in the statistics of who “could” be working but has chosen otherwise.  (insert graph of me playing golf next Thursday here) The prospect was asking as a means of measuring the opportunity to fill the void – i.e. is now a good time to start a real estate career?

So I took a look at a couple of numbers and then asked one Commission for their numbers and found out that, at least in my area, the percentage of decline in market value and transaction volume seems to track almost exactly with the percentage decline in the number of real estate professionals.  Below is the prospective students first question (her second question I chose to answer more directly – no, I will NOT take your exams for you) and my response (enhanced just for you).  Wonder how many will agree with me?

Prospective Real Estate Professional: “Hi there, I read somewhere that 60 percent of brokers have left the business…”

My Response:   The total number of licensees is never an exact science because of the duration of a license. In Colorado it is a 3-year license, so someone who got their first license in 2008 has not yet come up for renewal. In states where you get a 2-year license those haven’t come up for renewal yet either.

 Those getting a license now could be perfectly situated and established in the industry when the market levels off and then later rebounds (which is what real estate typically does). Right now numbers look like they are down about 15% in total licensees which in many areas is about the same percentage of decline in market value. That may also be close to the number of licensees who got the license originally but never got into the sales force.

While there has been a reduction in the number of licensees and in the number of REALTORS®, the first two quarters of 2010 were fairly strong for the housing sector. Commercial sectors struggled, however, and now both are dragging their way into the Fall. Personally I expected the Summer stats to be off, which they were. The expiration of the housing credit (except in California) and the number of buyers who got into the market early because of that was going to take a toll.  Chasing the market is an increased inventory level in some areas that will also drag prices for a time.

This isn’t unusual….     For 2005.  (Expectations of “easy” in real estate should always be mitigated)

For us we look at Fall as an excellent time to get into the business as you will be up and off the ground by the end of Winter near the start of the Spring buying season. (Note: warmer climates may typcially have a Fall selling season, which is also good) It is also a perfect time for current licensees to enhance their skills so that they can increase their productivity. With a ‘return to normal’ in terms of sales, real estate should be able to recover and/or level out as the excess inventory begins to melt off.  By targeting specific markets, such as short sales, the 25% of current renters who want to own or geographic farms a real estate professional willing to work will be able to succeed in this business for many years to come.

Do you agree? Let me know your thoughts. I’m very curious! Post a comment, email me  curt@vaned.com or on twitter @CurtisHilty

P.S. And if the Fed steps up efforts (see http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/28/business/economy/28fed.html?_r=1&emc=na) then maybe the recovery and/or stabilization will be even quicker or less painful? Dunno.

P.P.S. All around the Country there are those who are finding transactions and who have good local information – check out these Q&A’s just posted on Inman News –> http://www.inman.com/news/2010/08/27/real-estate-agents-notes-trenches

Fall means Installations & ARELLO®

The summer tends to involve less travel for me, but as soon as Fall shows up….  so where are we headed in September? I get to start by having some fun attending a few Board Installations around the state. (Hello Telluride!) Then right after that we get into the real work.

ARELLO®, The Association of Real Estate License Law Officials, will be hosting their annual meeting in Anchorage, AL beginning September 16th.  This years conference will focus on regulating with a global perspective.  I have been fortunate to be named to two work groups covering Social Media and Real Estate Practices, as well as to be working with the Affiliates Committee.

ARELLO® Task Force to Study Social Media Issues  – ARELLO® has created a task force to study related regulatory issues surrounding how people communicate in social media. By communication, we mean regulators, licensees and consumers.  The group is looking at how regulators push out their public protection message and at how real estate professionals are using these tools to interact with and market to consumers.

ARELLO® President Gary Isom has appointed a Social Media Task Force to study regulatory issues related to social networking. The charge of the task force is to work with ARELLO® staff to develop resources, guidelines and a program to prepare ARELLO® members to (1) make decisions with regard to the utilization of social media within their agencies; (2) evaluate the legal concerns of public institutions using social media; (3) write agency guidelines for using social media; and (4) develop model laws to assist jurisdictions in regulating the use of social media by their licensees. Co-chairs of the task force are Jeffrey Ledford (GA) and Emmet Wood (NC).

As an aside, if ARELLO® were to publish guidelines and those were adopted by the member jurisdictions, then licensees (me) can expect regulatory oversight over all social media that they engage in.

ARELLO® Task Force on Real Estate Practices – This group is charged with finding out what practices that licensees engage in are of concern to consumers and regulators, and to potentially recommend to the regulators courses of action that can be taken in response. This is the first year that this particular work group (or task force) has been engaged and so far no issues or policy have made it to the organization on the whole.

ARELLO® Affiliate Forum - All Affiliate Members of the organization are welcome to participate, which is a concept I’d personally like to see in some other organizations.  At the Mid-year meetings the Affiliates began a couple of ambitious directives, including the possibility of creating public service videos on the benefits of ARELLO® and on unlicensed activity.

The meeting in Anchorage will include the top 10 biggest infractions in real estate transactions as reported by the E&O Carriers who are Affiliate Members (RICE & Williams Underwriting have been asked to report). There will also be a report to the Affiliates on what’s new on the website and how Affiliates can access that content.

I look forward to reconnecting with friends from around the state, and indeed around the country over the next month or so.

Spring Travel Season officially set to open February 2nd!

Next week I’ll be in South Dakota for the SDAR business meetings and then flying directly to Denver for the Colorado Association of REALTORS® winter meetings. Then it’s off to RAPDD in Wichita the very next week. No complaints, just sayin’ – the Spring Travel Season has officially begun!

After all the business meetings come some excellent opportunities to network and learn. One such event will be RealEstate WordCamp on April 12th in Denver, held one day prior to the REALTOR® Rally. There are also a couple of REBar Camps taking place that look like they will be great events (Austin, Phoenix, and my favorite…St. Louis in June (I want to go to this one, even if it is in the summer!)). Throw in ARELLO meetings and NAR meetings and Local Association meetings and Commission meetings and I’ve got enough going on that I don’t think I can add any more Spring fun! (Did I even mention the Credit Union yet? No? Oh my!)

But alas – I shall! I’m also going to go skiing with my kids, and hopefully enjoy a day or two off before I get into the Summer Travel Season.

Previewing the upcoming events, some of the most interesting will be the CAR business meetings and the ARELLO Mid-Year meetings. These groups are doing excellent work for their members and I am privileged to be involved with each of them. I’ll share any reports after the meetings. And for all of you who are also traveling soon – may you have safe and enjoyable travels!

REEA puts out call for presentations

REEA is slated to hold their annual meeting in June in San Antonio, Texas and has recently put out the call for presentations. While there are other events where instructors can see Ed Directors and even more opportunities to get out in front of real estate professionals, REEA is still that rare place where educators, publishers and delivery organizations meet.

Just like in all other areas of real estate, the education arm meets to share ideas and to learn from each other. Presenting at REEA should still be something that each of us in the industry consider to be an honor. Check out the information sent out by REEA below;

Hello REEA Members,

The 2010 Annual REEA Conference is June 14-16 at the Marriott Riverwalk in San Antonio, Texas. The conference planning team is working to put on a GREAT event you won’t want to miss and part of its greatness will be YOUR contribution!

Attached please find the Call for Presentations for the 2010 Conference. Please consider submitting a proposal to be a presenter in San Antonio!

For further information contact Nancy at REEA headquarters – 414/908-4952 x135 or n.short@reea.org

Download document here -> Request for Presentation Proposals – REEA 2010

Reports from NAR

In my ever increasing attempts at getting updates and information posted before I forget, I finally asked for help. In getting to all of the critical meetings I had to enlist Burton Lee as a fellow attendee. He went to the key appraisal meetings in San Diego while I attended the education meetings. Worked great, but his reports are better than mine. We’ll start with his and then close with my report from the Professional Development meeting.

NAR National Conference – HVCC Session – November 13, 2009

A panel discussion that included FHFA, FHA, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and LSI (an appraisal management company) left the audience with a clear understanding that they like the HVCC. The perception is that complaints about pressure on appraisers has been reduced and the overall level of risk associated with faulty appraisals has been reduced.

NAR representatives from the Risk Management & license Law Forum and the Appraisal Committee highlighted the unintended consequences of the HVCC which include,

1. Lack of geographic competency associated with some AMC ordered appraisals, and
2. Appraisers fee reductions which have resulted in the more competent appraisers being unwilling to perform appraisals for AMC’s leaving the less experienced appraisers to do the work.

Since the HVCC is scheduled to sunset in one more year, does not appear to be actively pursuing legislation to suspend enforcement of the HVCC for 18 months. Most people in attendance were frustrated about the prospects for the future associated with HVCC related issues.

NAR National Conference – Appraisal Committee Meeting – November 13, 2009

The Good News – Mr. Thomas Strickland reported that HUD will be requiring appraiser fees to be separately identified on the HUD-1 and that AMC’s will be required to be required to compensate appraisers based on the customary fees for the region. Timing and details were not otherwise presented.

FHA will accept appraisals for a period of 4 months instead of the previously acceptable 6 months. Additionally two unit condominium units will now be eligible for FHA financing.

The Not So Good News – NAR has developed the REALTORS Property ResourceTM which will include a comprehensive, catalogued database of real estate information on every parcel of property in the United States. Part of this resource will include a REALTOR Valuation Model (“RVM”). The RVM will be used to produce a best-in-class automated valuation product. Most of the appraisers in attendance at the meeting posed the question, why are appraiser members of NAR funding a product that will compete with the services that the appraiser members provide and why weren’t appraisers included in the development of this product? The concerns of the committee were to be presented to the Executive Committee.

NAR National Conference – Professional Development Committee – November 14th, 2009

The PDC had a presentation of “The Shift” as well as covered the written reports from the family of designations. After which, I had no choice but to mention that there seemed to be a lack of committee business on the agenda and that the presentation should probably have been delivered to the General membership. That statement got a lot of positive response from fellow committee members.

Want more information? Visit www.realtor.org/conferencelive for all of the updates and information from NAR in San Diego.

2010 RAPDD & Educators Summit early bird registration ends this week

For instructors in real estate looking to get their message in front of Association Education Directors from accross the country, there may not be a better avenue than the RAPDD Summit. The summit, hosted by the Wichita Area Association of REALTORS®, is designed to both educate and market instructors. Having attended the summit in 2009 I can say that the speaker showcase is a well run session where instructors are given 10 minutes to present to a large group of education directors who have the ability and desire to present timely, effective programs to their members.

You can read my comments on the 2009 Summit by clicking here, and please note that I expect more education directors and association staff to take part in the 2010 Summit due to NAR offering a $400 stipend. I also expect more attendance from instructors from around the country as they work to increase event bookings. Early information indicates that the primary hotel may already be sold out. But don’t worry – the Marriott is down the street. It is, after all, downtown Wichita. You aren’t going to have to walk far.

This is an excellent opportunity for instructors to expand their business while at the same time taking part in the Instructor track of professional development. Feel free to email me with any questions, and I look forward to seeing you there!

What: 2010 RAPDD & Educators Summit
Where: Wichita, KS ~ hosted by WAAR
When: February 10th – 12th, 2009
Registration: Early Bird through Nov. 15th, 2009 – $299 ($49 speaker showcase fee additional)
Regular Registration cost is $349

Click here to open the RAPDD Registration Form

September is awesome!

Fall colors, cool Rocky Mountain air… There is nothing like Fall in Colorado. I do enjoy living here. I just wish I had more time to see it!

Turns out my schedule filled up pretty quickly this month, so I wanted to share just a couple of events that are coming up for me.

Next Wednesday, September 16th I will be presenting to the Wyoming Association of REALTORS® regarding the GRI, Graduate REALTOR® Institute Program. They were kind enough to schedule me to speak during the event.

Also upcoming is an e-PRO event being hosted by the Jefferson Going Association of REALTORS. That event will be taking place at JCAR September 23rd. I am looking forward to all of my other events, but these are a couple where I will actually have a chance to meet with and share stories and information with fellow Real Estate professionals in very comfortable settings. I hope to meet lots of new friends along the way.

For more information, or to register for these events, please follow the links below:

Wyoming Annual Conference – e-PRO Certification Training event

New committee appointment

This past week I received a letter from CAR President Amy Dorsey informing me that I have been appointed to the CAR Political Survival Committee. Just moments ago I affixed my signature to the document accepting this appointment.

I make special note of this because I believe that this committee is vital to the REALTOR organization in Colorado, and I want to send special thanks to the Transition Team, Co-Chaired by Chris McElroy and Kay Watson, and to Amy Dorsey for this honor. While my primary focus in REALTOR organizations has been serving on the Education committees at the local (BARA), state or national level, I have also served on regulatory committees and task forces. My involvement with the regulators has led to a heightened awareness of what legislative processes and political interests are involved in all facets of the real estate industry. I hope to bring that perspective to this new committee, and I look forward to serving.

REEA Conference in Portland

The 2009 Real Estate Educators Association Conference was held in Portland, Oregon in June. Education Directors, regulators and Instructors from across the country met to share ideas, show off new products and services and to learn about new programs being offered. This year’s event, however, was highlighted by some of the challenges that the organization has faced over the last year. Outgoing President Sylvia Shelnutt discussed openly the dramatic efforts undertaken by the Board of Directors to correct issues related to the organization. (Sylvia also graciously signed my program and wrote a very lovely note to Caroline who works at VanEd and sets up my trips for me) After being installed, incoming President Philip Schoewe talked about how REEA is coming together to move towards an exciting future and a fantastic 2010 conference.

Highlights included meeting up with old friends, making new contacts and learning what new options there were in real estate education around the country. I was also able to connect with our affiliates and education partners to see what they were looking for and how we could help each other. But it wasn’t all work! We even had the opportunity to get out and about! Doug Devitre posted this video from the conference:

With ever-changing laws and regulations, a conference like this is sometimes the only way for me to keep up on what is happening throughout our marketplace. I did learn a lot and I did make some great contacts. With a little work and a little but of luck, next years conference will be even better!

A Million Dollar home or a million dollars? hmmmm

So another home raffle is taking place, this one in Colorado. This time it benefits the Boys & Girls Clubs, and tickets are $100 a piece. You can win a ski home, a Denver loft or you can choose to take the $1 Million dollars in cash.

So my question is which would you choose? Take the chance that the loft is really worth it? Or that you will have enough money to pay the taxes on the Ski home? Or do you take the cash and pay the taxes on that???

It just seems like a million dollars ain’t what it used to be, so I need to jump all over this drawing and win now before it’s too late!

Click Here to find out more, of visit http://www.rockymountainhomeraffle.com/ to purchase your chance at……like, $586,983 or whatever it comes to when you win. And don’t forget to send me my 10%!!!!!